Friday, April 13, 2007
JETBLUE AIRWAYS TRAFFIC RESULTS
*Very very very nice number
And...the number say....B6 did okay! 19.9% more "rev" pax's is very respectable when compared with an 11.3% increase in "avail" seats. The airline is growing very quickly, 36% more departures is a lot, but the stage length (average miles of a B6 flight) fell 12.5% which is "spot on" because they introduced a new smaller aircraft, the EMB-190. Smaller aircraft, 36% more flights, is in sync with 11.3% more avail seats. The only scary number here is the anemic -1% load factor, a big negative when considering 36% growth--19.9% more $$ "pax" and 11.3% more available seats. It is scary because B6 actually slowed growth and deferred aircraft (capacity)---if they had stayed with the intended growth plan, these numbers would have been very messy. But management did a good job, but B6 can only delay aircraft orders and defer growth for so long (their business model is not geared for just stopping growth)---they are going to have to start looking inward to shave costs, and that gets really ugly. One other factor which is scary, is that B6 removed seats from airplanes during this period---thus reducing the capacity they already had. They are not generating enough new passengers to sustain their growth model and/or they are not discovering new routes that are paved in gold.
The Year to Date numbers below are pretty close to the month-to-month, but again you have that
-3.6% load factor, which ain't good....and does not bode well for the future growth model.